The Washington Capitals got here out of nowhere to win the Metropolitan Division final season.
The Caps have been projected to be a bubble playoff group with a restricted ceiling, however they defied these expectations with a 111-point marketing campaign, the most effective mark within the Japanese Convention.
Washington fell quick within the playoffs, shedding in Spherical 2 towards the Carolina Hurricanes, however that didn’t change the truth that it was a massively profitable season in D.C. and one which the Caps might construct on going ahead.
Logic would dictate {that a} efficiency like that will have raised Washington’s projections for 2025-26 significantly, however the reverse occurred. The betting market tagged the Caps as a regression candidate, pricing them behind the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, and principally on even footing with the Rangers.
There have been a number of causes the skeptics have been out for the Caps. The most well-liked argument was that so many gamers on Washington’s roster had profession years in 2024-25, and it was not a repeatable feat. The Capitals additionally led the league in capturing proportion final season, which was one other metric that pundits anticipated to regress.
Washington additionally didn’t bolster its roster within the offseason, which prompted nearly all of punters to miss the Caps in favor of extra stylish groups just like the Hurricanes, Lightning, or Devils.
All of this added as much as the Caps getting into the 2025-26 season as a 30/1 outsider within the Stanley Cup market.
You’d suppose that bookmakers can be fast to slash the costs on the Caps in response to a quick begin, however the reverse is true. Washington is presently taking part in at a 101-point tempo and boasts the most effective purpose distinction within the Japanese Convention, however they’ve barely budged within the futures market.
Coming into play on Tuesday, the Caps have been 25/1 to win the Stanley Cup (bet365, BetMGM) and 13/1 to win the Japanese Convention, properly behind the Hurricanes, Panthers, Lightning and Devils.
It doesn’t add up.
Not solely is Washington hanging with the heavyweights within the East when it comes to its file, however the Caps boast the most effective statistical profiles within the NHL.
Just one group, the juggernaut Avalanche, is permitting fewer objectives per recreation, and solely two golf equipment, Colorado and Carolina, boast a greater anticipated objectives fee at 5-on-5. Washington can also be third in shot try fee, which means the Caps are dominating possession at even energy for essentially the most half.
And it’s not simply the defensive work that appears nice. Washington is seventh within the NHL in objectives per recreation, and the Caps are second to Colorado when it comes to high-danger scoring probabilities created at 5-on-5.
The goaltending can also be a energy, with Logan Thompson presently sitting as the favourite to win the Vezina Trophy. Thompson’s deputy, Charlie Lindgren, is broadly thought-about the most effective backups within the league.
Betting on the NHL?
Maybe the one knock towards the Caps is that they lack the game-breaking expertise that lots of the groups forward of them within the betting market boast. The counter to that argument is that Washington’s depth is way stronger than nearly another membership. There aren’t any actual weaknesses right here.
The betting market is all the time going to be skeptical of a group instantly after it defies expectations, however it’s clear that the bookies and the bettors are overlooking the most effective groups within the NHL proper now.
If a extra glitzy group just like the Rangers, Maple Leafs or Oilers have been placing up the numbers that the Capitals are, they’d already be on the high of the board with the Avalanche.
Washington, nevertheless, is flying underneath the radar for now, so the time to behave on the Caps is now.
The Play: Capitals to win the Stanley Cup 25/1 (bet365)
Why Belief New York Publish Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, however a long-profiting sports activities bettor with 10 years of expertise within the playing trade. He loves utilizing recreation idea to assist punters win bracket swimming pools, discover lengthy photographs, and learn to beat the market in mainstream and area of interest sports activities.
