The New York Islanders are virtually definitely going to draft Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 total decide on the 2025 NHL Draft on Friday.
Most sportsbooks have taken down odds for the primary decide, signaling that it’s not even value posting as a result of everyone is aware of what’s coming.
Schaefer, a slick-skating defenseman from the OHL’s Erie Otters, is the consensus high prospect on this yr’s class, however he’s not the one blue-chipper that Isles followers are determined so as to add to the group.
That’s as a result of James Hagens, a local of Hauppauge, Lengthy Island, who grew up a die-hard Islanders fan, can be projected to be probably the greatest gamers on this age group.
Isles Nation has not hidden how desperate it’s to maintain Hagens on the Island.
Hagens entered the season because the No. 1 prospect, however he was handed by Schaeffer and Michael Misa throughout the 2024-25 marketing campaign.
And whereas Schaeffer and Misa are the consensus high two prospects simply days out from the Draft, issues can go in a thousand completely different instructions from there.
Some rankings have Hagens because the third-best participant on this area, whereas different lists have him pegged simply outdoors the highest 5.
It’s unfair to say Hagens is a polarizing prospect as a result of virtually everybody has him someplace between No. 3 and No. 7, however the disagreement on the place he matches on this puzzle has made it fairly troublesome to mission the place he shall be picked and who shall be selecting him.
Throw in the truth that there’s quite a lot of chatter that Utah (No. 4 total decide) and Boston (No. 7) are open to buying and selling their picks, and that the Islanders (amongst different groups) could be completely happy to commerce for these picks to pick out Hagens, and you may see why bookmakers, mock drafters, and pundits are far and wide in terms of projecting the place Hagens winds up.
Let’s see if we are able to use the betting odds to make an informed guess on the place Hagens will get picked and the way doubtless it’s that Mathieu Darche and the Islanders discover their manner again into the combination to pick out him.
James Hagens’ draft odds
| Choose Quantity | Workforce | Hagens’ odds | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | San Jose | 35/1 | Michael Misa (-300) |
| 3 | Chicago | 16/1 | Anton Frondell (-220) |
| 4 | Utah | 12/1 | Caleb Desnoyers (-105) |
| 5 | Nashville | +175 | Hagens (+175) |
In accordance with the oddsmakers, the primary three picks are just about set in stone. I might push again on Anton Frondell’s value at No. 3 being so quick, however not as a result of I consider the Blackhawks will choose Hagens.
Nonetheless, it appears unlikely that Hagens goes inside the highest three, however issues get very fascinating after that.
The Utah Mammoth at present maintain the No. 4 total decide, however there was loads of chatter that they’re open to shifting the choice.
The Coyotes/Mammoth have made the playoffs as soon as since 2012 (and that was within the Bubble), so there’s quite a lot of strain on this group to win now, making them extra prone to transfer their decide for gamers who can impression their roster subsequent season than different groups this excessive up on the board.
Including extra intrigue to the state of affairs is that Nashville’s basic supervisor, Barry Trotz, publicly said that Hagens is “right in their wheelhouse,” which is a sign that the Predators could be completely happy to select Hagens at No. 5.
Maybe Trotz is attempting to divert consideration from his actual plans, however placing one thing like that out there may be at the very least a sign to different events that they higher hop the Preds in line in the event that they need to seize Hagens.
The bookies at bet365 have Hagens priced at +175 to go No. 5 total, making that his probably touchdown spot, at the very least based on the betting market.
So if the Preds are the likeliest group to select Hagens at No. 5 (+175 odds carry an implied chance of 40.8 p.c), is there a manner to determine the chances that the Isles reduce Nashville in line and land the Lengthy Islander?
It’s not an actual science (no sportsbook has posted odds of which group will decide Hagens and I don’t suspect anyone will), however we do have a beginning place to work from with Hagens’ odds to go No. 4 total.
Hagens is 12/1 to be picked fourth, which equates to a 7.7 p.c probability if you convert the chances to chance.
However because the Islanders don’t personal the No. 4 total decide, we have to do some guesswork on how that is being priced.
Utah hasn’t been linked to Hagens a lot, so it’s truthful to surprise if these odds have already got the potential for a commerce being baked in.
Betting on the NHL?
In different phrases, is the betting market suggesting that there’s a 7.7 p.c probability {that a} group trades with the Mammoth for this decide to pick out Hagens?
And if that’s the case, what are the probabilities that the Isles can put collectively the perfect provide for No. 4?
The Islanders do have some actual bargaining chips to work with this summer time, most notably restricted free agent Noah Dobson, who is extremely coveted across the league.
A deal constructed round Dobson provides the Islanders a powerful place to begin to work from to get a deal for the No. 4 (or one other decide, ought to Hagens slip previous Utah and Nashville). It will be a tough provide to beat from different events, too.
In different phrases, it’s not implausible to recommend that the Islanders could be the likeliest group to tug off a cope with Utah for the decide, ought to the Mammoth determine to maneuver it. That doesn’t make it prone to occur, however it does hold it firmly throughout the realm of prospects.
Acknowledging that that is extra artwork than science, I do suppose you may put out ballpark odds of the Islanders discovering a technique to deliver Hagens dwelling.
The value must be longer than 12/1, however not an excessive amount of wider, as a result of the potential for a commerce is baked into these odds, and the Islanders could be the likeliest group to finish a cope with the Mammoth, given how motivated they’d be if the decide was accessible.
With all that in thoughts, I feel a good quantity to placed on the chances that Hagens comes dwelling could be roughly half of seven.7 p.c, which is 3.85.
Once you convert that quantity to betting odds, you get 25/1.
That isn’t long-shot territory, per se, however it’s removed from a banker.
Why Belief New York Put up Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, however a long-profiting sports activities bettor with 10 years of expertise within the playing business. He loves utilizing sport concept to assist punters win bracket swimming pools, discover lengthy photographs, and discover ways to beat the market in mainstream and area of interest sports activities.
