- The Montreal Canadiens acquired defenseman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders on Friday
- Montreal gave up two first-round picks and instantly signed Dobson to an eight-year, $76 million extension
- See the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup odds and betting evaluation following the blockbuster transfer
The Montreal Canadiens made their greatest transfer in years Friday, touchdown star defenseman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders. The worth was steep: each first-round picks (sixteenth and seventeenth total) plus ahead Emil Heineman.
Montreal wasted no time locking up their new defenseman, signing him to an eight-year extension price $76 million. That’s a $9.5 million cap hit by way of 2033.
But regardless of including one of many league’s best younger defensemen, the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup odds at DraftKings haven’t moved from +6000. Let’s dig into whether or not Montreal is being undervalued.
Montreal Canadiens Stanley Cup Odds 2026
At 60-to-1, Montreal is tied with Nashville for the Twentieth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. That places them fairly a bit behind Japanese Convention rivals like Florida (+600), Carolina (+900), and Tampa Bay (+1400).
Odds as of June twenty eighth at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Montreal Canadiens Dobson Commerce Evaluation
The Canadiens beat out Columbus and St. Louis to land Dobson, who was coming into the ultimate 12 months of crew management. This was GM Kent Hughes rolling the cube, betting that Dobson can get again to his 70-point magic from 2023-24.
Final season was tough for Dobson, although. He managed simply 39 factors in 71 video games, which is a fairly steep drop from his breakout 12 months. However let’s be honest right here. The Islanders have been a catastrophe, and Dobson was nonetheless consuming over 23 minutes an evening towards the opposite crew’s finest gamers.
The man’s bought the instruments. At 6-foot-4 and 200 kilos, Dobson brings each measurement and talent to Montreal’s backend. He grew to become the primary Islander defenseman since Denis Potvin to crack 70 factors in a season. And whereas Lane Hutson regarded sensible final 12 months, having two dynamic offensive defensemen provides Montreal some actual firepower from the blueline.
The timing works completely with David Savard’s retirement leaving a gap on the best facet. Dobson instantly turns into Montreal’s prime right-shot defenseman and will quarterback their first power-play unit.
Influence on Stanley Cup Odds
So why haven’t the chances moved? A couple of causes may clarify the oddsmakers’ cautious strategy.
First, Montreal’s core continues to be younger. Nick Suzuki (26) and Cole Caufield (24) are confirmed scorers, however guys like Juraj Slafkovsky (21) and Lane Hutson (21) are nonetheless growing. The Canadiens made the playoffs final 12 months however misplaced to Washington in 5 video games.
Second, Dobson’s inconsistency is a priority. Dropping from 70 factors to 39, even on a struggling crew, raises questions. At $9.5 million a 12 months, Montreal wants the most effective model of Dobson, not the one which appeared final season.
The Japanese Convention stays loaded. Florida simply received back-to-back Cups, Carolina is all the time harmful, and groups like Toronto and New Jersey have extra established rosters. The trail to a championship runs by way of some heavyweight groups.
Canadiens Stanley Cup Betting Worth
At +6000, there’s some worth in case you consider in Montreal’s trajectory. They’ve addressed a serious weak point by including a legit top-pairing defenseman, and their ahead group seems to be proficient and continues to enhance.
I count on the market to regulate and these odds to shorten a bit, perhaps all the way down to +5500 or +5000. However to maneuver the needle considerably, the Canadiens must show they will win playoff rounds.
The Canadiens are constructing one thing fascinating. With prospects like Ivan Demidov and David Reinbacher within the pipeline, this crew may very well be harmful in 2-3 years. Including Dobson accelerates that timeline, however they’re in all probability nonetheless a 12 months or two away from true competition.
There’s additionally the goalie scenario to type out. Samuel Montembeault wants to indicate he may be constant for a full season and into the playoffs. He had some good moments final 12 months, however hasn’t actually established himself as a real primary but.
Proper now, +6000 feels about proper to me. It’s price throwing a small futures wager at in case you consider on this younger core, however don’t count on Montreal to be buying and selling punches with Florida or Edmonton come playoff time.
