In Arctic Ice Hockey’s closing article concerning the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects beneath the age of 25, we discover the ultimate 4 younger males on our record to find out the probability they ever go well with up for the NHL franchise that drafted them. Whereas there are not any 1st spherical alternatives within the group, the True North membership did seize one of many gamers in every of the following 4 rounds.
Lets undergo them in draft order then, from highest to lowest….
ALFONS FREIJ – 2nd spherical (thirty seventh total), 19 yrs previous, 6’1″ 196 lbs, LD/RD
I picked a great day to do my write up of Alfons Freij, because the younger Swede simply occurred to ink his first skilled contract with the staff that drafted him thirty seventh total on the final Entry Draft. Although he signed his three yr ELC deal for $975,000 per season, the defenseman will probably be making the leap to Sweden’s highest league (SHL) with Timra IK in 2025-26.
The Solvesborg native actually excelled in his draft season, placing up a mixed 84 factors in 89 Swedish U20 & worldwide video games (.944 pts/gm), making him an early 2nd spherical choice for Winnipeg when their decide rolled round. This previous marketing campaign noticed the 6’1″ defenseman try the following step in his improvement by enjoying in Sweden’s second-best league. His level manufacturing sustained the anticipated hit at that stage and dropped to .368 factors per sport, but the coaches over there should have been pleased with what they noticed since they’ve promoted him to the highest tier for the upcoming season.
With equally good velocity & agility, the 19 yr previous is ready to become involved offensively, primarily as a playmaker though he has an above-average shot & a NHL-ready 1 timer. Freij was all the time a beautiful skater with robust offensive instincts…and now he’s starting to spherical out his defensive sport. The younger Swede will get to proceed to work on that within the SHL, in addition to being a possible choice for his nation’s roster for this yr’s World Junior Championships.
Whereas DobberProspects’ doesn’t have a PNHLe chart for Freij but to see the place they’d undertaking his potential ceiling could be, the web site does supply one other technique to attempt to decide whether or not a prospect would possibly make the NHL. That is known as their NHL Certainty statistic, which makes use of a scale of 1 to 10 to offer us an concept how possible it will likely be that they find yourself enjoying within the huge league sooner or later. Based on Dobber’s a prospect with a score of 9 or greater ought to most likely be suited up within the NHL already, however additionally they state that this stat isn’t saying something about how good that participant will probably be at that stage (might be elite or a backside sixer). Because the prospect’s score adjustments over time, a participant on the age of 18 will virtually all the time have a decrease score than they’ll the next yr in the event that they proceed to develop and carry out nicely towards greater ranges of competitors.
So with that in thoughts, the 19 yr previous Swede’s present NHL Certainty score is 8.0, which looks as if a great signal that Alfons will finally make the Winnipeg Jets roster sooner or later. For reference, the 20 yr previous Elias Salomonsson’s present score is 8.5 after he put up a powerful rookie season with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Not a lot separating the 2 European defensemen and Dobber’s scouting report does recommend that Freij’s ceiling could be as a “quantity three puck transferring defenseman“.
General, the 2nd rounder’s improvement appears to be going nicely and after subsequent season’s stats are on the books, we are going to possible get an opportunity to see what his PNHLe score is. Based mostly on all of the issues I’ve learn, it sounds just like the Jets might have a pair of up & coming high 4 defenders in Freij & Salomonsson. Us followers must also anticipate to see the younger man make the leap to the Manitoba Moose the next season, which can a minimum of give me the possibility to observe Freij play often.
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ZACHARY NEHRING – third spherical (82nd total), 20 yrs previous, 6’3″ 185 lbs, RW
When Zachary Nehring was 16 & 17 years previous, the best winger confirmed some offensive prowess at varied ranges of america Excessive College league (scoring over 1.5 pts/gm). The large American’s efficiency caught the attention of Winnipeg’s scouting division and the membership ended up deciding on him within the third spherical of the 2023 Entry Draft. In his post-draft season, the North Dakotan sustained a concussion and that led to missed time and never a lot offense when he was enjoying within the USHL (.318 pts/gm), placing his NHL potential in query.
Seeking to not solely rebound from an off yr, Nehring was additionally making the leap to the NCAA this previous season when he suited up with Western Michigan College. Right here is how he did….
The Jets’ improvement workers should have been elated to see that the Minot-born ahead took benefit of a wholesome marketing campaign by profitable 3 Rookie of the Week honours, 1 Rookie of the Month award, led the WMU freshmen skaters in each targets & assists……and was a part of a playoff run that noticed the Broncos carry the Nationwide Championship trophy. Plus he grew 2 inches and added a bit extra weight in accordance the the college’s web site (6’5″ 190 lbs). Not a nasty yr….and the scouts & numbers appear to agree in DobberProspect’s PHNLe score beneath. The scouts be aware that Nehring isn’t afraid to crash the online, however possible is extra of a long-term undertaking so he gained’t be knocking on the NHL’s door within the subsequent couple of seasons. Nevertheless, the long run roster of the Winnipeg Jets might all the time use that form of dimension within the center six, so right here is hoping Zachary continues progressing alongside his present path.
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GARRETT BROWN – 4th spherical (99th total), 21 yrs previous, 6’3″ 190 lbs, RD
The Winnipeg Jets took a shot at Garrett Brown within the 4th spherical of the 2022 Entry Draft after he established himself as a defensive defenseman on the USHL stage. The large American joined the Denver Pioneers of the NCAA the next season, however accidents stored him out for lengthy stretches of the membership’s Championship season (4 pts in 8 gms). Thankfully the best hander had higher well being this yr, getting in 42 video games however solely placing up 8 factors (.190 pts/gm) because the Pioneers made the NCAA Finals in back-to-back campaigns.
The 21 yr previous Buffalo native’s improvement curve just isn’t going nice at this level and I’m not positive if he’ll be capable of overcome consistency & skating issues to grow to be an NHL common. One other participant with out a PNHLe chart, so I’ll as soon as once more present DobberProspects’ NHL Certainty score for Garrett….3.5. Brown will probably be returning for one more season with Denver and the Jets will proceed to observe his play since they’ll retain his rights till August of 2027.
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DMITRI RASHEVSKY – fifth spherical (146th total), 6’1″ 185 lbs, RW
Because the NHL-KHL don’t have any present settlement concerning gamers’ rights, the Winnipeg Jets will retain Dmitri Rashevsky’s NHL rights indefinitely….and that could be wanted because the Russian winger lately accepted a 3 yr supply sheet from one other KHL franchise, forcing his Moscow Dynamo membership to both match or lose his companies. No matter how that performs out, it means the ahead isn’t coming to North America anytime quickly.
Rashevsky has been a close to 20 aim per season scorer in Russia’s high league for 4 campaigns now, so it could have been attention-grabbing if he had determined to take his shot with the Jets. The scouts all agree that he performs a excessive power sport and is defensively accountable, so he might have been an attention-grabbing addition to Nino Niederreiter & Adam Lowry on Winnipeg’s checking line. The flexibility to contribute on each the powerplay & penalty kill might have been helpful too. Oh nicely, he made his alternative….so lets take a peek at DobberProspects’ PNHLe chart to see what us followers are doubtlessly lacking.
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After I return over all of the Prospect articles to sum up what the Winnipeg Jets at the moment have of their prospect pool, right here is how I see the younger gamers’ potential NHL ceilings:
- 2nd Line Forwards: Walton, Yager, He, & Lambert
- Center Six Forwards: Chibrikov, Barlow & Nehring
- Backside Six Forwards: Julien & Ford
- 2nd Pairing Defensemen: Salomonsson & Freij
- Goaltenders: DiVincentiis (starter) & Milic (again up)
The Athletic lately ranked the True North prospects because the fifteenth finest within the NHL, proper in the course of the pack. Based mostly on the above, that will appear to be apt. Winnipeg has an honest variety of future NHLers within the group, however is missing that basically excessive finish expertise that different greater ranked swimming pools have (i.e. elite or 1st liners).
A part of that may be blamed on the Jets’ scouts, however they’ve been hindered by lack of makes an attempt up to now couple of drafts. During the last two, Winnipeg has solely had 50% of their alternatives within the first 4 rounds and that pattern will proceed as our membership doesn’t have their 2nd or 4th spherical picks for the following 3 drafts. That’s largely because of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff paying method an excessive amount of on the previous commerce deadline for gamers who have been by no means actually going to maneuver the needle in a great way…..however that’s the method it goes typically. Heck, there are these within the media nonetheless cursing Chevy for not spending the remaining $6M in cap area to enhance his staff, so I suppose they’d have been positive with the Jets spending much more belongings.
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That little dialogue about Winnipeg’s lack of upcoming draft picks and a current remark by AIH member SaskatoonJet took me on slightly journey.
Initially my curiosity was solely piqued sufficient to search for the 2 franchise enjoying within the Stanley Cup Finals and I found that each Florida & Edmonton solely contained 26% homegrown expertise on this season’s rosters. That’s solely 6 gamers every….and the Oilers solely drafted a type of exterior of the highest 10 total!! On your info, after I use the time period “homegrown“, I’m together with any participant who’s drafted by or signed as an undrafted free agent by the franchise that additionally they began their NHL careers with. Although many groups can’t match the utmost of 23 gamers beneath the cap, that’s the determine I used for the chances above and to find that the Winnipeg Jets have been 56.5% homegrown (13 of 23) on the finish of this previous season.
- Forwards: Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Perfetti, Lowry, Appleton, Tanev, & Gustafsson (8)
- Protection: Morrissey, Samberg, & Stanley (3) **Heinola didn’t play sufficient
- Goalie: Hellebuyck & Comrie (2)
After I allowed that info to percolate in my mind for a full day, I couldn’t assist myself from wanting on the total league to see if there are any patterns which may emerge. Is it unimaginable to do nicely within the playoffs with a “draft & develop” technique? Are the NHL’s elite golf equipment full of gamers they’ve introduced in through trades or free company?
The desk beneath is ordered primarily based on how every NHL staff did within the common season & playoffs, with the 16 post-season golf equipment highlighted in yellow. In different phrases, the groups that did the very best this yr are on the high and those it’s a must to scroll down to seek out had their difficulties in 2024-25. Relating to the chances, I ended up highlighting scores above 50% in gentle blue, ones within the 40’s in inexperienced, and the golf equipment with lower than 30% in purple. Take a while to take a look at the knowledge to see if something pops for you…..and as soon as you might be carried out making your discoveries, I’ll let you know what I discovered attention-grabbing beneath.
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Beginning off with the playoff groups, the very first thing that jumped out to me was that Winnipeg was the one franchise to qualify that had greater than 50% homegrown expertise on their rosters. Aside from that, no instant sample that I might see since there have been 5 golf equipment within the 40’s, 6 franchises within the 30’s, and 4 groups within the 20’s or beneath.
But while you consider the squads that have been thought-about Cup favourites at first of the yr, you see that Florida (26%), Edmonton (26%), Vegas (17.4%), & Colorado (21.7%) topped most of them. Clearly these franchises’ potential to attract expertise to their cities has helped them cross that line between an amazing staff and an elite one. Plainly being in a low tax/heat climate atmosphere (Panthers/Knights) or having elite superstars that others wish to play with (Oilers/Avalanche) can have its advantages. Now you could be saying what concerning the 3 golf equipment that have been within the “purple” and nonetheless missed the playoffs? Properly these can simply be defined…..Pittsburgh is an getting old franchise in its pre-rebuild demise throes after years of mortgaging the long run, Seattle is a current enlargement franchise with out the required draft historical past to have sufficient homegrown expertise be NHL prepared at this level, and Utah has a low proportion primarily as a result of poor Coyotes’ drafting historical past.
The 30’s vary additionally has a number of of the NHL’s high groups, with perennial playoff golf equipment like Toronto (39.1%), Tampa Bay (39.1%), & Carolina (39.1%) having simply over a 3rd of their rosters full of drafted & developed gamers. Then in distinction, Winnipeg (56.5%), Dallas (47.8%), & Los Angeles (43.5%) have been the three playoff golf equipment which have greater percentages but have constantly certified for the post-season in recent times. It’s a bit attention-grabbing that the Stars haven’t relied on bringing in as a lot expertise, regardless of having the benefits that go together with good climate & no state revenue tax.
At the very least they’re lucky sufficient to have the choice….not just like the golf equipment which might be typically on gamers’ no commerce lists whether or not it’s due to chilly climate, excessive taxes/value of residing, dangerous staff, no evening life, or shoddy web:
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 60.9%
- Winnipeg Jets – 56.5%
- New York Islanders – 56.5%
- Ottawa Senators – 43.5%
- Buffalo Sabres – 43.5%
- Calgary Flames – 43.5%
Now I’m not saying that having a whole lot of sunshine or the flexibility to take dwelling extra of your paycheck ensures a franchise will be capable of construct a Cup profitable roster….however it actually helps. The NHL rightly identified that nobody was scrambling to go to Florida when each the Panthers & Lightning sucked a few years in the past….however that solely means they lose any benefit the tax scenario offers them if they’re horrible. The truth is, even then in the event that they have been competing towards one other dangerous staff for a free agent participant, then the tax factor would nonetheless be useful in getting individuals to maneuver to your metropolis. So I must disagree with the league & NHLPA’s conclusion that this problem is a non-factor.
The actual fact stays, no different Normal Supervisor has a more durable job to do than whomever sits on the helm of the Winnipeg Jets. The chief in no commerce record appearances and a horrible observe file of drawing free brokers to the province of Manitoba, so many potential pathways for the True North membership have been clogged with obstacles. On the plus aspect, plainly as soon as a participant agrees to offer Winnipeg a shot, they typically prefer it sufficient to stay round for longer. So whether or not the draft & develop technique can ever create a Stanley Cup winner will finally be answered…as a result of that’s actually the one path the Jets must strive & get there.
As all the time, any ideas on the prospects or homegrown expertise chart is welcome. Moreover beginning discussions, feedback additionally let me know that individuals are nonetheless dropping by to test in each now & then. The subsequent factor on the hockey calendar is the upcoming Entry Draft in late June, which can then shortly result in the beginning of Free Company on July 1st. I hope to do an article to take a look at a few of the potential gamers Winnipeg would possibly draft with the twenty eighth total choice, in addition to dig by the discount bin of unrestricted free brokers to see if any might be helpful to the Jets.
Hope the fires in Manitoba & Saskatchewan haven’t impacted you an excessive amount of. Get pleasure from the remainder of the summer season.
